Capital Outflows Pose Risks to India’s Macroeconomic and Financial Stability

By Kavaljit Singh | Briefing Paper # 54 | July 1, 2022

For the past nine months, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been on a heavy selling spree in the Indian financial markets. According to data compiled by the National Securities Depository Limited, FPIs have pulled out a whopping Rs.255879 crore (US $33.5 billion) from equity and Rs.16621 crore ($2.1 billion) from debt segments of Indian financial markets, for a total net outflow of Rs.271950 crore ($35.6 billion) over the period October 2021 to June 2022 (see Table 1). In the first half of this calendar year, the total net…

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The What, Where, How and Why of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

By Kavaljit Singh | Briefing Paper # 53 | May 27, 2022

On May 23, U.S. President Joe Biden officially launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) in Tokyo. Conceived and led by the United States, the IPEF has 13 founding members, including Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. “The future of 21st century economy is going to largely be written in the Indo-Pacific…We are writing the new rules for 21st economy”, said Mr Biden at the launch event attended in person by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and…

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Deciphering the Review of the IMF’s Institutional View on Capital Flows

By Kavaljit Singh | Briefing Paper # 52 | April 5, 2022

On March 30, 2022, the International Monetary Fund published the Review of the Institutional View on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows. The review updates the IMF’s Institutional View (IV), adopted in November 2012, followed by guidance notes on capital flows added in April 2013 and December 2015. The IMF’s Institutional View is an important policy document because it provides an analytical framework for the Fund’s policy advice on liberalizing and managing capital flows.

Since its adoption, IMF staff members have applied the IV extensively throughout the…

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FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways

By Kavaljit Singh | Briefing Paper # 51 | January 28, 2022

This week, all eyes were on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve, as financial markets and policymakers worldwide awaited the outcome of the committee’s deliberations. The FOMC concluded its deliberations on Wednesday with the release of a policy statement and a virtual press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Based on its deliberations, the FOMC signaled its willingness to accelerate plans to wind down monetary policy stimulus announced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to…

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The Fed’s Aggressive Monetary Policy Tightening: New Headwinds for Emerging Markets

By Kavaljit Singh | Briefing Paper # 50 | January 21, 2022

As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year, emerging market economies will continue to struggle to improve their financial resilience in the face of numerous domestic and global headwinds. The emergence of new virus variants like Omicron serves as a stark reminder that the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over, and it could jeopardize the economic recovery prospects of both emerging and advanced economies.

First identified in Botswana and South Africa in November 2021, the highly-contagious Omicron variant is already wreaking havoc on a significant portion of the global economy…

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